We watched the Independent Spirit awards the other night and were not exactly blown away by them, not just because of how predictable they were (come on, it’s not like we were expecting a whole lot of shocks at the Oscars last night, either), but also because, well, it didn’t seem very independent.

Nicolas Chartier, one of the four nominated producers of “The Hurt Locker,” will have to stay away from the Kodak Theater for Sunday’s Oscar ceremony. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced Tuesday that, as a penalty for violating campaign rules, Chartier would be barred from the 81st Academy Awards gala. Chartier violated Academy rules against campaigning directly to voters and disparaging the competition. But AMPAS stopped short of stripping Chartier of his candidacy as a nominee for its top award and said that, should “Locker” win, Chartier will receive the Oscar statuette — just not at the Kodak. Chartier began apologizing last week for having violated the campaign rules. The offending email, sent out Feb.

Well, it’s here, the column to which you’ve all been anxiously looking forward, yes, it’s our big, nay huge, Oscar preview edition here at FNB, the one in which we somewhat confidently predict who will win at the Academy Award ceremony six days hence. In last year’s edition, we nailed all eight of our prognostications, but to be fair, we think that had as much to do with the predictability of the event than our own genius. Still, it’s a heady bar we’ve set for ourselves, and thus, with a little trepidation but without further ado, we’re going to get to it.

A month ago, give or take, we made our early predictions about what would be the 10 nominees for best picture next month. Well, now that we’ve seen almost every film that has an even remote chance to make that list (we’re still short a couple but, rest assured, our diligence is fierce), we’ve decided to slightly modify said predictions and, at the same time, come clean about something of which we’re not terribly proud.